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Perhaps it was unwise to give up control of my iPhone to Timur Yunosov, a Russian cybersecurity researcher who has developed a penchant for exploiting vulnerabilities in payment devices. In a matter of minutes of handing it to him, Yunosov was draining my already empty bank account, taking it into an overdraft, by just tapping the locked device onto a terminal.
An alternative answer that is recently gaining currency equates financial stability with the absence of sharp movements in financial conditions. Sharp movements in financial conditions that arise from large increases in the price of risk and negative externalities created by financial vulnerabilities can give rise to financial stability concerns.
I distinguish financial vulnerabilities from financial conditions. Thereare many dimensions to financial vulnerabilities. For example, one coulddistinguish the amount of leverage and maturity transformation that areprevailing in different sectors of the economy, such as the householdsector, the nonfinancial corporate sector, the banking sector, or theshadow banking system. Financial vulnerabilities can lead to fire sales orinvestor runs, creating negative externalities.
Of course, financial conditions and financial vulnerabilities interact.Easy financial conditions sow the seeds for the buildup of financialvulnerabilities. When financial vulnerability is high and financialconditions are loose, risks to financial stability going forward are likelyhigher than when financial vulnerability is high and financial conditionsare broadly neutral.
Both financial vulnerabilities and financial conditions tend to exhibitcycles. Cycles in the pricing of risk tend to be somewhat shorter thancycles in leverage or maturity transformation. In general, periods of easyfinancial conditions tend to be followed by a tightening, though the timingand durability of the tightening tend to vary from cycle to cycle.
In some cases, easy financial conditions are associated with the buildup ofvulnerabilities that reflect unchecked underlying externalities and spreadacross institutions and markets via fire sales, runs, or disorderlydeleveraging. In those cases, easy financial conditions could be followedby a sharper and even more prolonged tightening with larger adverse impactson economic growth. The greater the imbalances that have built up duringtimes of easy financial conditions, the larger the risks of a sharpadjustment in financial conditions, even if it does not result in asystemic disruption of financial intermediation.
There are a number of economic channels that can lead to such amplificationover time. From a cyclical macroprudential perspective, what matters isthat the amplification mechanisms exhibit temporary time variation. Thefirst amplification mechanism that I believe is important are extrapolativebeliefs. The recent academic literature documents the pervasiveness of thephenomenon using a variety of equity, housing, and banking data. Analystsand CFOs extrapolate past returns to form expectations about future returnsin equity markets (Greenwood and Shleifer 2014). That means that they tend to expect the highest returns at the peak andthe lowest returns at the depth of crisis (see Figure 2). That type ofbehavior is the opposite of what would be expected from rational economictheories, which predict low expected returns in booms, and high expectedreturns in busts. Of course, the presence of a significant amount ofextrapolative economic actors means that asset pricing cycles tend to beexacerbated.
In a similar vein, housing market professionals including real estatebrokers, real estate lawyers, and securitization experts continued toaccumulate housing positions well into 2007 (Cheng, Raina, and Xiong 2014). There is no evidence that they expected the housing cycle to turn. Moregenerally, based on data since 1920 across 20 economies, bank creditexpansions strongly suggest neglected crash risk: banks tend to lend wellinto the boom, even though such behavior strongly forecasts negative bankreturns in the subsequent correction (Baron and Xiong 2017). In sum, there is solid evidence that key economic actors tend tounderestimate the risk of adjustments to the pricing of risk, andconsequently take on excessive risk in the boom, leading to the buildup offinancial vulnerabilities when financial conditions are easy.
Effects on output occur through a number of mechanisms. Those are at workboth when the upswing in leverage results in a full-blown crisis, and whenit does not. When vulnerabilities are high, an adverse shock will tend toincrease borrower defaults, and this increase will be sharper whenfinancial vulnerability is associated with a weakening of lendingstandards. When intermediaries sustain losses, they become constrained andreduce the supply of credit to the economy.
Importantly, using bank-level evidence, such credit crunch effects havebeen found to be at work both in crisis times and outside of full-blownbanking crisis (Nier and Zicchino, 2008). In other words, credit crunch effects are pervasive and can contributeto a deepening of recessions even outside of crises episodes, as documentedin studies using aggregate data (Claessens, Kose and Terrones, 2009). The collapse in the supply of credit that is associated with afull-blown crisis is therefore best understood to be just an extreme caseof a more common phenomena associated with the movements in financialconditions.
Tightening financial conditions can also lead to a reassessment of debtlevels, potentially forcing a deleveraging on the part of borrowers,particularly the household and corporate sectors. This results in a drop ininvestment and consumption (Guerrieri and Lorenzoni, 2017,Eggertsson and Krugman, 2012). This effect will be at work even when borrowers do not default on theirdebt (and therefore do not affect directly the health of the bankingsystem), but adjust otherwise.
Hence vulnerabilities build up during times of easy financial conditions,and lead to amplification in downturns in reaction to adverse shocks. Evenif adverse shocks do not cause systemic disruptions of financialintermediation, counteracting the frictions that lead to excess volatilitycan improve welfare as measured by downside risks to GDP growth. There istherefore a case for countercyclical macroprudential intervention aimed attaming these dynamics.
Furthermore, monetary policy has price stability as primary mandate. It maynot be able to respond enough to offset a build-up of risks given tradeoffsrelative to its inflation objective. For instance, where the central bankis determined to stimulate, it cannot be used to offset easy financialconditions, and one may need additional tools to reduce the risks ofborrowers overextending themselves.
The economic channels that I have laid out link the ease of financialconditions to the buildup of vulnerabilities. When financial conditionsdeteriorate, vulnerabilities are reduced, with adverse impacts on realactivity. Importantly, the buildup and the unwinding of vulnerabilities hasasymmetric effects on economic activity.
Of course, I am not arguing that policy makers should target financialconditions directly. Rather, the monitoring of financial conditions andvulnerabilities provides useful information about downside risks to GDP inthe short and medium run, thus usefully guiding the stance of policy.
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